Unless you have been hiding under a rock in a deep, dark cave somewhere in the midst of the Outback, you would have heard of dichloroacetate (DCA). For those of you who do count the underside of an Outback cave rock your home (and who surprisingly have the internet to view this blog), the short version is that DCA is a drug that has recently been found to possess the potential to force certain prevalent cancers to regress. In short, DCA is shaping up to be the "Great White Hope" of cancer treatment. (I'm not going to go into great depth here about DCA, but you can start your research on the drug by checking out http://www.depmed.ualberta.ca/dca/ and go from there.)
The reason I have decided to start my blogging with reference to this little panacea is that it has caused me to wonder what would actually happen if our esteemed researchers and scientists do actually manage to fulfill the age old dream of discovering legitimate cures or treatments for the serious diseases that plague our continued existence.
If I was asked to nominate the Big Four diseases or conditions that bring death to our species I'd have to go with cancer, coronary heart disease, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's. At around 50 years of age the first two really start to kick in as serious candidates for the means of our death. As we push further on into our 60s and 70s, the latter two start to inch their way towards being responsible for our seemingly inevitable demise towards a cold, dark grave, adding to the danger alrady posed by cancer and heart disease.
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A few statistics......(sorry, I might do this now and again):
The Australian Bureau of Statistics report on Causes of Death in 2004 (available at http://www.abs.gov.au/) shows that, in terms of overall deaths in Australia during that calendar year, malignant neoplasms (cancers) accounted for 28.7% of all deaths and Ischaemic heart disease accounted for 18.5% of all deaths. Combined, and spread across all age groups, cancer and heart disease accounted for 47.2% of all deaths amongst Australians.
The Australian Institute for Health and Welfare publishes various reports that detail mortality rates and causes for Australians. Looking here - http://www.aihw.gov.au/publications/phe/motca/motca-c05.pdf - you can see that, in 2000, cancer and circulatory problems accounted for 69.9% of male deaths and 73.0% of female deaths for those in the 45-64 demographic.
In terms of Alzheimer's, the disease ranked as the 7th leading cause of death in the US in 2004 being responsible for the passing of 65,829 people. Combined with Parkinson's, the two conditions accounted for over 3% of all deaths in the US in 2004. (Source - http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr54/nvsr54_19.pdf) Now, that doesn't seem like all that much, but considering that it mainly affects older citizens who have already had to run the gauntlet of other causes of death, it is not insignificant. Furthermore, nuerodegenerative diseases are projected to rise by 350% up to the middle of the century due to increased average life span and improved detection techniques.
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The reason that I have provided these statistics is because most of us live decently long lives already and will still be on the top side of a hole in the ground to push into these dangerous age brackets. Once again, the Australian Institute for Health and Welfare website shows that the average life expectancy amongst Australians is now around 78 for men and 83 for women (if you manage to be one of those who make it to 65, you can actually expect to live another 18 years for men and 21 years for women!). So, considering we all hope to live long and prosperous lives, we are all going to have to enter this danger zone and face these monsters of demise.
So, after a somewhat circuitous route, we come back to DCA......
What happens if, as hoped, DCA is indeed the wonder drug to tackle cancer? What happens if over a quarter of the population no longer have that particular executioner's axe hanging over their head? Well, the answer is that we will live even longer. Our life expectancy might be expected to rise from 80 to around 90 or so.
"So?" I hear you ask. "Is this a problem?"
Not really, yet. An extra ten years gives us a chance to do a few more things (travel, for instance) and spend more time with our family (grandchildren, great-grandchildren and so forth) and could really be a boon for us all as individuals.
But that extra 10 years gives us another decade to hang around and reap the benefits of further medical advances. Let me use myself as an example. I'm a handsome, intelligent, charming 30 year old man. Now, while the ladies out there seem to focus more heavily on the handsome, intelligent and charming aspects the more important element in regards to this discussion is the fact that I'm 30. As we have already seen, judging by the average life expectancy of Australian males I have another 45 or so years left before my friends taxidermy my corpse and plonk me on the lounge with a Tooheys Old eternally held in my hand.
In the 45 years to come before I hit that mark, what can we expect to see that will affect me? If DCA is the panacea many people are quietly discussing it could be then cancer could be nothing more than a trip to the doctor within a decade. With a good diet and regular exercise the chances of heart disease are considerably reduced (I am not part of the increasingly large portion of Australian men who are overweight and unfit), and there is no reason to think that treatments for heart disease won't be found in the next 20 years to match those that will work on cancer. Ditto with nuerodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's.
The end result? By the time I hit the danger zone of 55+ (in 25 years time), we can expect the major dangers of cancer and heart disease to be relatively easily treatable conditions. In the same vein, in 40 years when I enter the danger zone of dementia, treatments and/or cures can be expected to be routine for citizens of first world countries such as Australia. Every time I come into a danger zone that zone will most likely have been eradicated by advances in medical knowledge that will have led to treatments for the various dangerous conditions. There is no reason to expect that, as an average Australian citizen, my life expectancy (based on rational and sound future projections) should not be at or around 100 years of age. Now, being 30, that gives me another 70 or so years to live.
What will happen in that 70 years? Organ growth as a result of developments in stem cell research? Full body replacements based upon the same technology? If you are getting skeptical at this point in time, track down the 50th Anniversary edition of New Scientist magazine and check the predictions of some of the world's leading scientists in these fields. Heck, some of these scientists have predicted that within half a century brain transplants will become possible, meaning whole body replacement will definitely be on the cards.
Can it be possible that, with all these achievable developments and advancements, I might have an indefinate lifespan ahead of me? Might I, as an average individual, be on the verge of potential immortality?
"So?" I hear you ask, again. "Is this a problem?"
On the surface, seemingly not. Any sane individual would want to avoid death and live as long as possible (well, some may be in a rush to meet their Savior, but not me!) so this seems like a good thing, right? Individually, yes, but once you start to look at our society as a whole it is not the pretty picture that it might initially appear to be.
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For now, I might leave the situation here. This initial blog was not meant to be anything more than an introduction to the kind of wild thoughts that often run throughout my head on an average day. It was meant to be something that got you, the reader, thinking as well. Many might be inclined to simply write off what I have put here as pure fancy, but I advise you not to do so. I am not a scientist (not even a mad scientist!) but I am an intelligent and inquisitive man who has read a lot on subjects such as these and knows enough to make a relatively informed guess as to what our future might hold in this situation. I have provided a few references here for you to check up on, but you should go out and search the internet yourself to find out whether what I say has any substance or not.......(lol, be careful, though!)
In the next installment of my blog, I'll start to outline the ways in which this phase change in life expectancy will affect our society as a whole and us as individuals. Hopefully a few people out there can also contribute and help to enlighten the rest of us. Until then, take care...
